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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Sunday, 1 January 2017. The problem with the likelihood ratio for DNA mixture profiles. We have written many times before (see the links below) about use of the Likelihood Ratio (LR) in legal and forensic analysis. H1: suspect one unknown. H2: suspect one known other. H4: suspect two unknowns. H5: suspect one known other one unknown. H6: suspect two known others. H8: one known other two unknowns. For a statis...

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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data | bayesknowledge.blogspot.com Reviews
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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Sunday, 1 January 2017. The problem with the likelihood ratio for DNA mixture profiles. We have written many times before (see the links below) about use of the Likelihood Ratio (LR) in legal and forensic analysis. H1: suspect one unknown. H2: suspect one known other. H4: suspect two unknowns. H5: suspect one known other one unknown. H6: suspect two known others. H8: one known other two unknowns. For a statis...
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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data | bayesknowledge.blogspot.com Reviews

https://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Sunday, 1 January 2017. The problem with the likelihood ratio for DNA mixture profiles. We have written many times before (see the links below) about use of the Likelihood Ratio (LR) in legal and forensic analysis. H1: suspect one unknown. H2: suspect one known other. H4: suspect two unknowns. H5: suspect one known other one unknown. H6: suspect two known others. H8: one known other two unknowns. For a statis...

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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data: Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence Analysis

http://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com/2016/10/bayesian-networks-and-argumentation-in.html

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Friday, 7 October 2016. Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence Analysis. Some of the workshop participants. On 26-29 September 2016 a workshop on " Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence Analysis. Took place at the Isaac Newton Institute Cambridge. This workshop, which was part of the FOS Programme. Some of the participants at the pre-workshop meeting anyalysing a specific Dutch case. Birthd...

2

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data: March 2016

http://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com/2016_03_01_archive.html

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Friday, 25 March 2016. Statistics of coincidences: Ben Geen case revisited (ABC). In November 2014 I reported on the case of nurse Ben Geen who was convicted in 2006 for murdering 2 patients and seriously harming 15 others. I had been asked to produce an expert report. On the 'statistical coincidences' in the case for the Criminal Cases Review Board. Now a 30-minute documentary on the case. The method is appl...

3

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data: December 2015

http://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com/2015_12_01_archive.html

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Tuesday, 8 December 2015. Norman Fenton at Maths in Action Day (Warwick University). Today Norman Fenton was one of the five presenters at the Mathematics in Action Day at Warwick University. The others included writer and broadcaster Simon Singh. And BBC presenter Steve Mould. Who is also part of the amazing trio Festival of the Spoken Nerd. Which features Queen Mary's Matt Parker. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom).

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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data: Bayesian networks: increasingly important in cross disclipinary work

http://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com/2016/09/bayesian-networks-increasingly.html

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Saturday, 17 September 2016. Bayesian networks: increasingly important in cross disclipinary work. The project, CAUSAL-DYNAMICS ("Improved Understanding of Causal Models in Dynamic Decision-making") is a collaborative project, led by Professor Norman Fenton. Of the School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, with co-investigators Dr Magda Osman. About the Leverhulme Trust. The Leverhulme Trust was ...

5

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data: May 2016

http://bayesknowledge.blogspot.com/2016_05_01_archive.html

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Thursday, 26 May 2016. Using Bayesian networks to assess new forensic evidence in an appeal case. If new forensic evidence becomes available after a conviction how do lawyers determine whether it raises sufficient questions about the verdict in order to launch an appeal? From the case documentation, we know the following:. A baby was injured during an incident on the top floor of a house. The research was fun...

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Sports: References

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/sports/references

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Joseph A, Fenton NE, Neil M, "Predicting football results using Bayesian Nets and other Machine Learning Techniques", Knowledge Based Systems, Volume 19, Issue 7, Pages 544-553, Nov 2006 DOI. Predicting Football Results using Bayesian Nets and Other Machine Learning . Bayesian Networks for Unbiased Assessment of Referee Bias in Association . The problem with predicting football results. Probability and Law blog article. Constantinou, A. C. and ...Const...

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Home

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. This tool - which runs on AgenaRisk platform - is a prototype implementation of the various novel features of Bayes-Knowledge. The following download options are available:. System Requirements and Installation Instructions. Are available for Windows, Mac and Linux. The guide to Table Learning Functionality Implemented in AgenaRisk. And relevant source files. All models below can be run with the free version of AgenaRisk software. Bayes and the Law.

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Medical

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/medical

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Historical data relevant to the general medical condition(s) and its treatment. Expert medical judgment including causal relationships between relevant factors about the general medical condition(s) and its treatment (which is paramount, as in many situations the relevant historical data is extremely limited, and many key factors may be unobservable). Live data from patient examination and clinical tests. Bayes and the Law.

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Medical: References

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/medical/references

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Filter list by tags:. Constantinou, A., Freestone M., Marsh, W., Fenton, N. E. , Coid, J. (2015) "Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Violent Reoffending among Prisoners", Expert Systems With Applications 42 (21), 7511-7529. DOI: http:/ dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.05.025. Constantinou et al 2015) Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Violent Reoffending among Prisoners.pdf. For details of model). Yet B, Perkins ZB, Tai NR, and Marsh DWR (2014)&#...

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Bayes and the Law: References

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/bayes-and-the-law/references

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law: References. Adam, C.,. Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science. 2010, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons. Aitken, C.G.G. and Taroni, F.,. Statistics and the evaluation of evidence (2nd Edition). 2004, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons. Aitken, C.G.G.,. Statistics and the evaluation of evidence. 1995, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons. Balding, D. J. Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles. New York,...

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Sports

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/sports

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. There are many factors other than just luck that can influence the final result of a game making it just too complex to number-crunch. This makes football match prediction an ideal test-bed for researchers trying to come up with computer decision-makers that can deal with real-life uncertainties. Key player missing/returning back to action. How good are the models? The first thing to realise is that for a football forecast model to make a profit, the m...

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Operational Risk: About

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/operational-risk

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. This page will soon contain information about operational risk applications within Bayes-Knowledge framework. Bayes and the Law. Created with Artisteer by Aulga. We use cookies to improve your experience and to help us improve our site. Continuing to use this service means you agree with our Cookies policy.

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Bayes and the Law: Key Documents

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Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law: Key Documents. Filter list by tags:. Bayes and the law. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M. (2011), "Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks", Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, 114-151, 2011 ISSN 1440-4982. Fenton and Neil 2011) Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks.pdf. Bayes and the law. Powerpoint presentation on issues being looked at by Bayes and Law network.

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Bayes and the Law: Contributors

http://www.bayes-knowledge.com/index.php/applications/bayes-and-the-law/contributors

Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law. Bayes and the Law: Contributors. Denotes an unconfirmed participant. Prof Peter Alldridge (Professor of Law, Queen Mary University of London). Prof Willy Aspinall (Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, University of Bristol and Aspinall and Associates). Prof David Balding (Professor of Statistical Genetics, University College London). Dr Crofton Black (Investigator, Reprieve). Tiernan Coyle (Contact Traces Ltd). Prof P...

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Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data

Bayes Knowledge: Smart data – not big data. Original ERC Project Description. Bayes and the Law. Sunday, 1 January 2017. The problem with the likelihood ratio for DNA mixture profiles. We have written many times before (see the links below) about use of the Likelihood Ratio (LR) in legal and forensic analysis. H1: suspect one unknown. H2: suspect one known other. H4: suspect two unknowns. H5: suspect one known other one unknown. H6: suspect two known others. H8: one known other two unknowns. For a statis...

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