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Wednesday, 5 May 2010. Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation? Mervyn King has famously said that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed to plug the UK's budgetary hole would be so unpopular that they will keep the party that introduces them "out of power for a whole generation". Aside from the point that this is just the latest in a long line of communications incompetence and political-meddling from the Bank of England's Governor (yes, I'd sack you, Merv! And its...

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MPPI | cpmppi.blogspot.com Reviews

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Wednesday, 5 May 2010. Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation? Mervyn King has famously said that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed to plug the UK's budgetary hole would be so unpopular that they will keep the party that introduces them out of power for a whole generation. Aside from the point that this is just the latest in a long line of communications incompetence and political-meddling from the Bank of England's Governor (yes, I'd sack you, Merv! And its...

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MPPI | cpmppi.blogspot.com Reviews

https://cpmppi.blogspot.com

Wednesday, 5 May 2010. Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation? Mervyn King has famously said that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed to plug the UK's budgetary hole would be so unpopular that they will keep the party that introduces them "out of power for a whole generation". Aside from the point that this is just the latest in a long line of communications incompetence and political-meddling from the Bank of England's Governor (yes, I'd sack you, Merv! And its...

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MPPI: July 2009

http://cpmppi.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html

Tuesday, 21 July 2009. Is the Bank of England leaving the building? BEAN: BOE WILL WITHDRAW STIMULUS IF CPI OUTLOOK OVERSHOOTS 2%. BEAN: BOE WOULD LIKELY SELL ASSETS ONLY AFTER RATE RISE. BEAN: BOE LIKELY TO RAISE RATE FIRST AS PART OF EXIT STRATEGY. Definitely not - we are in a Balance Sheet Recession. But that is not the point. Do I think they will. Raise rates if their (imperfect) model suggests above-target inflation? It is still easy to imagine a scenario where the Reds and Greens sell-off 100-200bp...

2

MPPI: Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation?

http://cpmppi.blogspot.com/2010/05/will-next-uk-government-be-out-of-power.html

Wednesday, 5 May 2010. Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation? Mervyn King has famously said that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed to plug the UK's budgetary hole would be so unpopular that they will keep the party that introduces them "out of power for a whole generation". Aside from the point that this is just the latest in a long line of communications incompetence and political-meddling from the Bank of England's Governor (yes, I'd sack you, Merv! And its...

3

MPPI: UK Elections for Investors

http://cpmppi.blogspot.com/2010/03/uk-elections-for-investors.html

Tuesday, 9 March 2010. UK Elections for Investors. I've been meaning to write something on the election for a while, so thought this poll ( http:/ www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece. I think it's worth highlighting these. And Political Betting ( http:/ www2.politicalbetting.com/. And in particular its articles on UNS ( http:/ politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-2/. And their seat model ( http:/ politicalbetting.com/index.php/archiv...As a ...

4

MPPI: January 2010

http://cpmppi.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html

Friday, 22 January 2010. Statistically speaking, the Office of National Statistics can't count. As a result of the ONS survey covering a tiny proportion (. Anyway, the point is that UK Retail Sales are a lot stronger than the ONS data suggests. The below chart clearly shows that the ONS figures broadly track the BoE survey over time but are much more volatile. White Line - ONS Retail Sales. Yellow Line - Bank of England Regional Agents Retail survey. Friday, 8 January 2010. But what is driving it? Second...

5

MPPI: April 2010

http://cpmppi.blogspot.com/2010_04_01_archive.html

Wednesday, 14 April 2010. The Bill Gross Effect. In the below chart, the underperformance of Gilt Futures (and CTD) since mid-March can clearly be seen. Yellow line is the 10yr Gilt/Bund benchmark yield spread, the Orange line is the spread between the two CTD yields, and the White line is the ratio of the futures prices. Wednesday, 7 April 2010. The Brussels (lack of) Consensus. Larry Summers once said:. When markets overshoot, policymakers must overshoot too". On the other hand, I have a hard time beli...

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MPPI

Wednesday, 5 May 2010. Will the next UK government be out of power for a generation? Mervyn King has famously said that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed to plug the UK's budgetary hole would be so unpopular that they will keep the party that introduces them "out of power for a whole generation". Aside from the point that this is just the latest in a long line of communications incompetence and political-meddling from the Bank of England's Governor (yes, I'd sack you, Merv! And its...

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