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Lesmaes | "Bloc Note" on economy and finance

"Bloc Note" on economy and finance

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Lesmaes | "Bloc Note" on economy and finance | lesmaes.wordpress.com Reviews

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"Bloc Note" on economy and finance

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All Posts | Lesmaes

https://lesmaes.wordpress.com/all-posts-3

Bloc Note on economy and finance. Impact of a revaluation of the RMB. Economic volatility: the end of the “great moderation”. Lack of global aggregate demand. Goldman vs. Chanos. Wed 10th: What a low US mutual fund cash holding could mean. Sun 7th: The US labor market is improving. Isn’t it? Tue 2nd: US household total income vs. total debt. Mon 1st: Chinese oil demand, where does the growth come. Mon 1st: Federal reserve balance sheet and bank reserves. Wed 25th: Two scary graphs. The S&P 500 YoY return.

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Goldman vs. Chanos | Lesmaes

https://lesmaes.wordpress.com/2010/03/14/goldman-vs-chanos-2

Bloc Note on economy and finance. Goldman vs. Chanos. I finally caught-up with some reading and finished Goldman’s note on China’s fixed asset investment (FAI). Published mid-February, the conclusion was pretty clear :. 8220;Did China invest too much in 2009? 8220;we believe most of such investment is justifiable for current and future economic development and will not cause a structural over-investment problem, as many fear.”. Those were the main arguments:. They wanted to look good. 5) And finally,.

3

The US labor market is improving. Isn’t it? | Lesmaes

https://lesmaes.wordpress.com/2010/03/07/the-us-labor-market-is-improving-isnt-it

Bloc Note on economy and finance. The US labor market is improving. Isn’t it? Some data have suggested the US labor market might be improving. For example the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, has shown job creation last quarter, leading to a drop in unemployment rate to 9.7%. Weekly claims have also significantly decreased from the top of last year. Why should we look at the NSA data? The current crisis might have temporary altered some of those effects. Why does it matter?

4

Lack of global aggregate demand | Lesmaes

https://lesmaes.wordpress.com/2010/03/21/lack-of-global-aggregate-demand

Bloc Note on economy and finance. Lack of global aggregate demand. Bill Gross had some really good words in his March letter ( link. Discussing the lack of global aggregate demand:. This split is also true between “new” and “old” world countries, like the Eurozone, with Germany in the role of China, and the PIIGS replacing the US. Germany has no desire to rebalance, the country has enjoyed a nice ride…. So this is the current state of the world economy: a global lack of aggregate demand. No, not really&#...

5

What a low US mutual fund cash holding could mean | Lesmaes

https://lesmaes.wordpress.com/2010/03/10/what-a-low-us-mutual-fund-cash-holding-could-mean

Bloc Note on economy and finance. What a low US mutual fund cash holding could mean. Mutual fund cash holding is usually the lowest at the peak of stock market indexes. So with only 3.6% of their asset in cash, could we be close to a top? The following graph represents the S&P 500, in orange, versus cash holding, in white, inverted:. However, cash level seem to be trending lower since 1993, and we could imagine reaching a new low before a new top, especially since return on cash is litteraly zero. You ar...

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Lesmaes | "Bloc Note" on economy and finance

Bloc Note on economy and finance. Lack of global aggregate demand. March 21, 2010. Bill Gross had some really good words in his March letter ( link. Discussing the lack of global aggregate demand:. This split is also true between “new” and “old” world countries, like the Eurozone, with Germany in the role of China, and the PIIGS replacing the US. Germany has no desire to rebalance, the country has enjoyed a nice ride…. So this is the current state of the world economy: a global lack of aggregate demand.

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