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Mathematical Analysis

Mathematical analysis of financial market data; economic news and commentary; advice for individual investors

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1

mathematicalanalysis.com: stock and bond market models

http://mathematicalanalysis.com/cmt99q4.html

4th Quarter 1999 News, Commentary, and Reviews. 29 December 1999: Y2K Caution? Today's action suggests that perhaps some more conservative investors are shifting from stocks into bonds, perhaps as a precaution against any unexpected Y2K fallout? 21 December 1999: 'January Effect' Resumes. 20 December 1999: Things that make you go 'Hmm.'. Many commentators say that higher rates don't affect the high-tech NASDAQ companies. But, do higher rates affect their customers? The rallies in the Dow Jones Industrial...

2

Is there a 'January Effect'?

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Study: Is there a 'January Effect'? The question, however, is: will this trend continue? The December gains have recently been explained as being the result of professionals buying stocks in anticipation of the January Effect. And some people suggest that gains in November may also be the result of this anticipation, as professionals try to get into the market before the crowd arrives, in order to buy in at Autumn's lower prices. Does any of this make sense?

3

mathematicalanalysis.com: stock and bond market models

http://mathematicalanalysis.com/cmt00q1.html

1st Quarter 2000 News, Commentary, and Reviews. 17 March 2000: Volatility Concerns? A huge rally is always welcome. But is increasing volatility something to be concerned about? And if so, in which direction? 16 March 2000: Models Agree: WOW! All of the models did a quick about face after yesterday's big rally and so participated in today's incredible upturn. Model #17, which was invested 200% using margin, gained over 9% for the day! All the models continue to be extremely positive. That's hard to say&#...

4

mathematicalanalysis.com: stock and bond market models

http://mathematicalanalysis.com/cmt99q2.html

2nd Quarter 1999 News, Commentary, and Reviews. Market Choppiness Reaches 11-Year High. The study is continuing. Updated 18 May 99. New Tier of Moderate Investment Strategies Under Development. View the performance for the first of the new models, the prototype Model #17. Meanwhile, oil prices have zoomed upward, something immediately noticeable at the local gas pump. But the full impact of this increase won't be felt until all the industries and manufacturers who use oil (as fuel or as a component o...

5

mathematicalanalysis.com: stock and bond market models

http://mathematicalanalysis.com/cmt99q1.html

1st Quarter 1999 Commentary. Of course, I'm always more bearish than my models (they don't have a wife and kids who depend on them to make the right decisions). What are the negatives? Well, for starters, basically flat earnings. As Peter Lynch tells us in the Fidelity ads, strong earnings growth has been the basis of the big gains in the market over the past many decades. If we don't have strong earnings growth then the more traditional professionals are going to be cautious. A classic warning of an imp...

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