politicalcalculus.co.uk

Electoral Calculus

May 2015 Election Results: Conservative Majority of 12. Local Election Results and Boundaries Update 2015. The seat detail pages now have the new local election results, and updated local ward boundaries where they have changed. This major data upgrade shows clearly the interplay between recent national and local elections, as well as showing more details about the political make-up of each constituency. An example seat is Arundel and South Downs. BN14 0TF) which has had updated boundaries. It is expecte...

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Electoral Calculus | politicalcalculus.co.uk Reviews

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May 2015 Election Results: Conservative Majority of 12. Local Election Results and Boundaries Update 2015. The seat detail pages now have the new local election results, and updated local ward boundaries where they have changed. This major data upgrade shows clearly the interplay between recent national and local elections, as well as showing more details about the political make-up of each constituency. An example seat is Arundel and South Downs. BN14 0TF) which has had updated boundaries. It is expecte...

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1 general election prediction

2 party

3 ukip

4 green

5 plaidc

6 minor

7 nire

8 postcode

9 snp/plaid

10 sdlp

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Electoral Calculus | politicalcalculus.co.uk Reviews

https://politicalcalculus.co.uk

May 2015 Election Results: Conservative Majority of 12. Local Election Results and Boundaries Update 2015. The seat detail pages now have the new local election results, and updated local ward boundaries where they have changed. This major data upgrade shows clearly the interplay between recent national and local elections, as well as showing more details about the political make-up of each constituency. An example seat is Arundel and South Downs. BN14 0TF) which has had updated boundaries. It is expecte...

INTERNAL PAGES

politicalcalculus.co.uk

1

Tectonic Voter Migrations

http://politicalcalculus.co.uk/telegraph11_trans.html

Tectonic Voter Migrations hurt the Conservatives. This article first appeared in the Daily Telegraph. Online on 20 April 2015. The headline polls inch towards the Tories, but underneath big changes have happened. The polls now give the Conservatives a lead over Labour both in vote share and in predicted seats. Although both parties are within 3 per cent of their vote shares in 2010, there have been tectonic movements in the electoral make up of the nation. The growth of UKIP is also unambiguously bad for...

2

Voter Migration 2010-2015

http://politicalcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_votermigration.html

This page first posted 30 May 2015. This page gives an updated version of the pre-election esimates. The graphic shows how people switched:. The graphic shows the various migrations of one hundred typical voters from 2010 to now. Voters who have switched from one party to another are shown moving along the corresponding arrow. "Lost" supporters are shown in grey, and "gained" supporters carry a white plus sign. Compared with the pre-election estimates, there are the following differences:. The Lib Dem to...

3

User-defined Poll

http://politicalcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38.45&LAB=30.55&LIB=8.1&UKIP=12.9&Green=3.8&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=14.9&SCOTLAB=24.3&SCOTLIB=7.5&SCOTUKIP=1.6&SCOTGreen=1.3&SCOTNAT=50&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010

This page allows you to make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. All you need is your own estimate (or guess) of national opinion support for the three major parties. This may come from:. A published national opinion poll. An unpublished national opinion poll, whose results you happen to know. Your own estimate of what support the parties will get at the next election. To make your prediction, enter the national.

4

Track Record: 2015 Errors

http://politicalcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_15errors.html

Track Record: 2015 Errors. This page first posted 16 May 2015. The headline prediction for the May 2015 election was not accurate. The final prediction was for a hung parliament with Labour/SNP as the largest bloc. The actual result was a small Conservative majority. In numerical terms, the prediction and the outcome were:. We will now look at these and other issues in more detail. The particular topics studied are:. 1 Opinion poll error. To make our prediction, we used an average of the final campaign p...

5

Historical Data and Plots

http://politicalcalculus.co.uk/flatfile.html

Historical Data and Plots. See how votes shifted region-by-region between the last five elections. Historical data Excel Pivot Tables. Historical election data from 1983 to 2015 in Microsoft Excel Pivot Table format. Lets you view the data (Votes, Seats) through any of the given dimensions (Constituency, Region, Year, Party). Full Pivot Table download. 5Mb Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet). Lite Pivot Table download. 200Kb Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet, excludes Constituency). Historical data flat files. Note t...

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To your HTML Add class="sortable" to any table you'd like to make sortable Click on the headers to sort Thanks to many, many people for contributions and suggestions. Licenced as X11: http:/ www.kryogenix.org/code/browser/licence.html This basically means: do what you want with it. */ var stIsIE = /*@cc on! Document.getElementsByTagName) return; sorttable.DATE RE = / ( d d? D d)$/; forEach(document.getElementsByTagName('table'), function(table) { if (table.className.search(/ bsortable b/)! 12) { / defini...

politicalcalculus.co.uk

Electoral Calculus

May 2015 Election Results: Conservative Majority of 12. Local Election Results and Boundaries Update 2015. The seat detail pages now have the new local election results, and updated local ward boundaries where they have changed. This major data upgrade shows clearly the interplay between recent national and local elections, as well as showing more details about the political make-up of each constituency. An example seat is Arundel and South Downs. BN14 0TF) which has had updated boundaries. It is expecte...

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