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The Rational Future Institute

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Welcome to the Rational Future Institute! The goal of the Rational Future Institute is to create a cultural awareness of the principles of ideal rationality and of the ways we humans predictably deviate from rational thinking. The RFI is non-partisan, and does not advocate for specific conclusions to social, scientific, moral or political arguments. Our focus is on ideal rational methods and creating public awareness of cognitive bias. What is rational thinking?

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The Rational Future Institute | rationalfuture.org Reviews
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CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Welcome to the Rational Future Institute! The goal of the Rational Future Institute is to create a cultural awareness of the principles of ideal rationality and of the ways we humans predictably deviate from rational thinking. The RFI is non-partisan, and does not advocate for specific conclusions to social, scientific, moral or political arguments. Our focus is on ideal rational methods and creating public awareness of cognitive bias. What is rational thinking?
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1 rationality
2 blog
3 news
4 resources
5 get involved
6 an introduction
7 further reading
8 what is rationality
9 frequently asked questions
10 a few examples
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The Rational Future Institute | rationalfuture.org Reviews

https://rationalfuture.org

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Welcome to the Rational Future Institute! The goal of the Rational Future Institute is to create a cultural awareness of the principles of ideal rationality and of the ways we humans predictably deviate from rational thinking. The RFI is non-partisan, and does not advocate for specific conclusions to social, scientific, moral or political arguments. Our focus is on ideal rational methods and creating public awareness of cognitive bias. What is rational thinking?

INTERNAL PAGES

rationalfuture.org rationalfuture.org
1

The Rational Future Institute

http://www.rationalfuture.org/examples.html

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Here are a few examples of cognitive bias that provide a clue to the costs of irrational thinking. Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue? Should the outcome of a parole hearing depend on the time of day when the hearing was held? This fascinating article shows just how predictable (and, in some cases, avoidable) our failures are. The Fundamental Attribution Error: It's the Situation, Not the Person. Raytheon gets $10.5M to develop "serious games". These aren't your bas...

2

The Rational Future Institute

http://www.rationalfuture.org/resources.html

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. A Glossary of Terms. The Marvels and the Flaws of Intuitive Thinking. Edge Master Class 2011 by Daniel Kahneman [9.12.11]. A List of Cognitive Biases. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Crazier Future. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of The Black Swan. Julia Galef on Rationality. Books On Cognitive Bias. Ellen Kaplan, Michael Kaplan. Thinking Fast And Slow. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein.

3

The Rational Future Institute

http://www.rationalfuture.org/aboutrfi.html

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. The mission of the Rational Future Institute is to help people make decisions that better accord with their values by raising public awareness of the principles of rationality. Rational Future Institute FAQ. The Rational Future Institute NFP is an Illinois not-for-profit corporation. Our Board of Directors. The Rational Future Institute. Buffalo Grove, IL 60089.

4

The Rational Future Institute

http://www.rationalfuture.org/faq.html

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Rationality - Frequently Asked Questions. Is the ideal rational person emotionless? Why do I want to be rational? What is the difference between rational thinking and critical thinking? Do rational thinkers always come up with the correct answer? What is the connection between philosophy and rationality? Is rational thinking a matter for psychologists? Why is it important to be rational? Is the ideal rational person emotionless? Why do I want to be rational? If you w...

5

The Rational Future Institute

http://www.rationalfuture.org/rfifaq.html

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Rational Future Institute - Frequently Asked Questions. What are the goals of the Rational Future Institue. The mission of the Rational Future Institute is to help people make decisions that better accord with their values by raising public awareness of the principles of rationality. Does the RFI take specific positions on economic or social policy? What is the difference between rational thinking and critical thinking? Critical thinking most commonly refers to techn...

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Rationality Versus Rationalization | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/rationality-versus-rationalization

Culture that understands rationality. Posted by Ivan Phillips. December 21, 2011. There’s something satisfying about carefully reasoning one’s way to a conclusion. To set aside one’s preconceived notions, decide on a new course of action, and to achieve reasoned confidence that one is doing the right thing. Have you ever found yourself in a park or a fast food court, and produced reasons to justify not picking up someone else’s trash? Rationalization is a normal human behavior. It’s the natural...We can ...

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January | 2012 | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2012/01

Culture that understands rationality. The Rationality of Induction. Posted by Ivan Phillips. January 5, 2012. Induction is the idea that the past is a guide to the future. We believe the Sun will rise tomorrow because it has risen in the past. Unfortunately, attempts to prove that induction is rational have failed. In An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, published in 1748, David Hume wrote: “That there are no demonstrative arguments … Continue reading →. Socrates must be mortal. January 3, 2012.

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October | 2012 | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2012/10

Culture that understands rationality. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I. Posted by Ivan Phillips. October 31, 2012. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part III. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part II. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I. The Rationality of Induction. Socrates must be mortal. The Rational Future Institute. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

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Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/bayes-theorem-some-intuitive-principles-part-i

Culture that understands rationality. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I. Posted by Ivan Phillips. October 31, 2012. Ideal rational thinking is Bayesian, meaning that it is based on Bayes’ theorem. To explain these principles, the best thought experiment I’ve been able to find involves gaming dice. If you’ve ever played Dungeons and Dragons, you’re familiar with 4-sided and 20-sided dice. A 4-sided die is a tetrahedron, and a 20-sided die is a dodecahedron. I rolled the 4-sided die. Becaus...

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Socrates must be mortal | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2012/01/03/socrates-must-be-mortal

Culture that understands rationality. Socrates must be mortal. Posted by Ivan Phillips. January 3, 2012. All men are mortal,. Socrates is a man,. Therefore, Socrates must be mortal. This is the classic Socrates syllogism that has been used to illustrate deductive logic for ages. Deductive logic takes general rules and comes up with new specifics. “All men are mortal” is a general rule. That Socrates is mortal is a specific fact. Ie, a statement that could be true or false. Propositions are not belief...

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Customer Service and the Curse of Fundamental Attribution Error | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/customer-service-and-the-curse-of-fundamental-attribution-error

Culture that understands rationality. Customer Service and the Curse of Fundamental Attribution Error. Posted by Ivan Phillips. December 28, 2011. This is the title of a concise article. On fundamental attribution error at the SDM Advisory Group. Rationality does not guarantee agreement, but we might get along better. Socrates must be mortal ». Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:. Address never made public). Socrates must be mortal.

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The Rationality of Induction | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/the-rationality-of-induction

Culture that understands rationality. The Rationality of Induction. Posted by Ivan Phillips. January 5, 2012. Induction is the idea that the past is a guide to the future. We believe the Sun will rise tomorrow because it has risen in the past. Unfortunately, attempts to prove that induction is rational have failed. In An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Published in 1748, David Hume wrote:. Hume is the philosopher most closely associated with the problem. The short answer is no. The principles of ...

rationalfuture.wordpress.com rationalfuture.wordpress.com

A Rational Future | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/rationalfuture

Culture that understands rationality. Posted by Ivan Phillips. November 10, 2011. What if the only thing holding us back from being more rational was our weak understanding of what it means to be rational? Isn’t it curious that we all think that a big problem with the world today is a lack of rational thinking, but we don’t explicitly teach rational thinking anywhere in our education system? Understanding this bias at an intuitive level would go a long way towards making the world a better place. Ins...

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Ivan Phillips | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/author/rationalfuture

Culture that understands rationality. Ivan Phillips has written 10 posts for rationalfuture. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part III. Posted by Ivan Phillips. November 12, 2012. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part II. Posted by Ivan Phillips. November 2, 2012. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part I. Posted by Ivan Phillips. October 31, 2012. Ideal rational thinking is Bayesian, meaning that it is based on Bayes’ theorem. Bayes’ theorem tells us how to up...Induction is ...

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Proverbs | rationalfuture

https://rationalfuture.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/proverbs

Culture that understands rationality. Posted by Ivan Phillips. December 14, 2011. As children, we’re taught that we should “walk a mile in another man’s shoes” before we judge him. This is admirable advice, to be sure. However, I can’t help thinking that this advice isn’t as effective as it might have been. In my last post, I discussed fundamental attribution error. Rationality Versus Rationalization ». Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Address never made public). You are commenting us...

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The Rational Future Institute

CULTURE THAT UNDERSTANDS RATIONALITY. Welcome to the Rational Future Institute! The goal of the Rational Future Institute is to create a cultural awareness of the principles of ideal rationality and of the ways we humans predictably deviate from rational thinking. The RFI is non-partisan, and does not advocate for specific conclusions to social, scientific, moral or political arguments. Our focus is on ideal rational methods and creating public awareness of cognitive bias. What is rational thinking?

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rationalfuture | Culture that understands rationality

Culture that understands rationality. Bayes’ Theorem: Some Intuitive Principles, Part III. Posted by Ivan Phillips. November 12, 2012. In the first two parts of this series, I expressed the practical consequences of Bayes’ theorem in terms or two informal principles:. All things being equal, the theory which predicts the a higher likelihood for the observed data is the theory most likely to be true. All things are not equal because evidence accumulates. The question seems all too easy to answer. Sinc...

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