riskoverreward.com

Risk Over Reward

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Tuesday, May 5, 2015. I wasn't expecting to write another commentary so soon, but my favorite investment has performed so well that it was required. China is the top performing major stock index of the last year; the Shanghai Composite is up a whopping 120% since last June. I remain long-term bullish on China but it's no longer an obvious relative value play. Are Chinese equities overvalued now? Is it a bubble? I don't think so. What about the Chinese economy?

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Risk Over Reward | riskoverreward.com Reviews

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Discussing how to Think about Investing. Tuesday, May 5, 2015. I wasn't expecting to write another commentary so soon, but my favorite investment has performed so well that it was required. China is the top performing major stock index of the last year; the Shanghai Composite is up a whopping 120% since last June. I remain long-term bullish on China but it's no longer an obvious relative value play. Are Chinese equities overvalued now? Is it a bubble? I don't think so. What about the Chinese economy?

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Risk Over Reward | riskoverreward.com Reviews

https://riskoverreward.com

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Tuesday, May 5, 2015. I wasn't expecting to write another commentary so soon, but my favorite investment has performed so well that it was required. China is the top performing major stock index of the last year; the Shanghai Composite is up a whopping 120% since last June. I remain long-term bullish on China but it's no longer an obvious relative value play. Are Chinese equities overvalued now? Is it a bubble? I don't think so. What about the Chinese economy?

INTERNAL PAGES

riskoverreward.com

1

Risk Over Reward: January 2015

http://www.riskoverreward.com/2015_01_01_archive.html

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Thursday, January 22, 2015. The last 6 months have seen a collapse in commodity prices (particularly crude oil), a strengthening dollar (and collapsing Yen), and generally flat equity prices with rising volatility. In this commentary I'll focus on crude and then discuss the big picture. But none of that is new, so why did the price crash in the last 5 months? US equities are substantially overpriced, to the point that their expected real returns over the next 7 ye...

2

Risk Over Reward: Economic Commentary: Long Natural Gas Equities - Ari

http://www.riskoverreward.com/2012/02/economic-commentary-long-natural-gas.html

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Wednesday, February 29, 2012. Economic Commentary: Long Natural Gas Equities - Ari. There's "blood in the streets" as one Natural Gas investor recently told me. Nat Gas is trading below production costs for most drillers and has been so cheap for the last couple of years that many companies in the natural gas industry are near bankruptcy. I smell opportunity. Japan's imports of liquified natural gas have been surging,. So why not just buy natural gas futures?

3

Risk Over Reward: November 2013

http://www.riskoverreward.com/2013_11_01_archive.html

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Sunday, November 17, 2013. How can such an enormous pricing disparity persist? US healthcare spending is about double that of comparable countries with similar outcomes. A little bit of this difference comes from superfluous procedures and tests, higher medical liability insurance premiums, and hospital emergency room procedures. But the vast bulk of the disparity comes from higher prices on the same medications and procedures. 1 Prices are not transparent. We see...

4

Risk Over Reward: Profiting from Depreciation

http://www.riskoverreward.com/2014/05/profiting-from-depreciation.html

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Friday, May 30, 2014. The global supply of base money is growing at a ferocious pace. The US is tapering (still expanding the money supply, but at a slowing pace), and the velocity of money is likely to pick up causing broad money measures to continue expanding. More dramatically, the rest of the world. To own. Fixed income of all types will do poorly. The Growing Money Supply:. The central banks of the world are in full out money printing mode. The US led. I gene...

5

Risk Over Reward: June 2013

http://www.riskoverreward.com/2013_06_01_archive.html

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Tuesday, June 11, 2013. The Tepper Rally and the End of the 30 year Bond Bull Market. From a basic value investing perspective, the market appears roughly fairly valued. I think the greatest risk to equity performance is currently Japan. Japan is the world's third largest economy and if it faces a crisis, the contagion effect will be drastic. Posted by Ari Paul. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). About Risk Over Reward. News and Data Links. FRED - US Economic Data. Greg ...

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constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: May 2013

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2013_05_01_archive.html

Friday, May 31, 2013. UST Bonds selloff boosted the USD. Retracement time now favors Long EURUSD and GOLD and Short USDJPY. USDX – The Dollar Index is retreating from the recent High and is sitting comfortably at the Support around 83. I would assume it will be consolidating for the next week until it goes down to the Flat Support around 82.50 where it will meet the Lower Channel Support. That weakness is easily seen in the retracements in the currencies and Gold. Links to this post. Friday, May 24, 2013.

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: BAC - The next great Short

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/03/bac-next-great-short.html

Thursday, March 22, 2012. BAC - The next great Short. Bank of America Corporation. BAC - 1st in Volume traded and 45 in Market Cap. Seems everybody wanna see $10. I myself see overextended move on falling Volume. What more could I ask besides 1.42% Short float? Looks like a great Short to do. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Gold and Silver Spot Prices. Economic Cycle Research Institute News Feed. Dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. The Smart Money Tracker.

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: YEN Crosses - Time to Rest & Reverse?

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/03/yen-crosses-time-to-rest-reverse.html

Monday, March 12, 2012. YEN Crosses - Time to Rest and Reverse? Looks like H&S, doesn't it? Looking for 105 and below if the Resistance at 110 holds, however it seems like forming a lower Top. Trend is still down. Ichimoku cloud is still making it hard for the Longs. Same here. Betting on Lower Top formation overextended momentum technicals. Rather non-spectacular performance these last 2 years for "The Beast". Still under pressure. Labels: Foreign Exchange Trading. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom).

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: AAPL - my favorite SHORT candidate + Markets at critical juncture

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/03/aapl-my-favorite-short-candidate.html

Friday, March 2, 2012. AAPL - my favorite SHORT candidate Markets at critical juncture. Calling tops is an ego play anyway I had this feeling we are at a critical juncture here and wanted to post a reminder and make a check on the broader picture and especially this, favorite to the whole world, super cool stock AAPL. So what happens when everybody has it? There is nobody to buy and the price drops 15% in a day. AAPL - Weekly chart has that super Bullish 8 last. Russell 2000 Small Caps have been the out-...

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: UST Bonds selloff boosted the USD. Retracement time now favors Long EURUSD & GOLD and Short USDJPY

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2013/05/ust-bonds-selloff-boosted-usd.html

Friday, May 31, 2013. UST Bonds selloff boosted the USD. Retracement time now favors Long EURUSD and GOLD and Short USDJPY. USDX – The Dollar Index is retreating from the recent High and is sitting comfortably at the Support around 83. I would assume it will be consolidating for the next week until it goes down to the Flat Support around 82.50 where it will meet the Lower Channel Support. That weakness is easily seen in the retracements in the currencies and Gold. June 3, 2013 at 2:52 PM. Also visit my p...

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: FX Majors are flirting with their 50% retracement levels.

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/06/fx-majors-are-flirting-with-their-50.html

Thursday, June 21, 2012. FX Majors are flirting with their 50% retracement levels. FOMC tonight announced that it will continue its Operation Twist. Details can be found in all major news-wires, Bloomberg for example:. Http:/ www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/the-fed-is-running-out-of-room-to-twist.html. AUD/USD already did 6 big Figures up and stopped right before its 50% correction around 1.0218 and the 200-Day SMA and also just below the 50% level of the whole 2011-2012 range. Slow Stochastics...USD/C...

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: AUD/USD: Selling against the 61.8% Fibonacci level

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2011/12/audusd-selling-against-618-fibonacci.html

Wednesday, December 7, 2011. AUD/USD: Selling against the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The rationale here is pretty clear. There is a pretty strong Resistance cluster at the 61.8% Fib at 1.0340 and the 200-Day MA at 1.0412. Tentative selling here with a scope of the 23.4% Fib around 0.99. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Gold and Silver Spot Prices. Economic Cycle Research Institute News Feed. Dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. The Smart Money Tracker.

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: Starting to build Long Crude Oil position after 30% fall.

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/06/starting-to-build-long-crude-oil.html

Wednesday, June 27, 2012. Starting to build Long Crude Oil position after 30% fall. Crude Oil fell 30% in the last 2 months and it gives me a reasonable Risk/Return perspective to start a tentative Long position around the $80 level via the CL August '12 contract. A clear stop would be situated below 77.5. August 24, 2012 at 8:50 AM. Hope that Oil Trading. Would be better in this upcoming season. It would be harder to move up when Oil gets low. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). The Smart Money Tracker.

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: FX Majors ( € ~ £ ~ ¥ ) ::: Trading the RANGE

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2011/10/fx-majors-trading-range.html

Friday, October 14, 2011. FX Majors ( € £ ¥ ) : : Trading the RANGE. Kapri Just entered those positions based on the assumption we are trading in the established range:. Short EUR/USD 1.3782. Short GBP/USD 1.5768. Long USD/JPY 76.88. Risk on a breach and close above. Highs and Lows respectively, so looking to add in that space until the inflection point is not compromised. Daily chart show 1.3850 as a major Resistance level (50% of 1.4555 - 1.3147). Labels: Foreign Exchange Trading. Write more, thats all...

constellation1976.blogspot.com

Foreign Exchange & Commodities Speculation - Constellation 1976 | Trading & Trend Research: Sold AAPL Short @ 542.92 / NASDAQ is on the verge of a breakdown.

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2012/03/sold-aapl-short-54292-nasdaq-is-on.html

Monday, March 5, 2012. Sold AAPL Short @ 542.92 / NASDAQ is on the verge of a breakdown. Markets seemed to me rather overextended for quite some time. I was looking to a clear sign of a breakdown. AAPL Weekly chart suggests we see trend deceleration but the larger time frame does not give a clear signal. March 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM. AAPL to 525 and then it shoots to 600 before it sees 500. March 14, 2012 at 5:18 PM. Hows that short working out for you? Im sure you got called on it to cover. S&P 500 (SPX) In...

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riskoverreward.com

Risk Over Reward

Discussing how to Think about Investing. Tuesday, May 5, 2015. I wasn't expecting to write another commentary so soon, but my favorite investment has performed so well that it was required. China is the top performing major stock index of the last year; the Shanghai Composite is up a whopping 120% since last June. I remain long-term bullish on China but it's no longer an obvious relative value play. Are Chinese equities overvalued now? Is it a bubble? I don't think so. What about the Chinese economy?

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