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van Gelder & Monk - HomeWe help organisations think more effectively about almost anything by bringing to bear our unique range of methods, tools and insights, and drawing on our extensive experience.
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/
We help organisations think more effectively about almost anything by bringing to bear our unique range of methods, tools and insights, and drawing on our extensive experience.
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/
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van Gelder & Monk - Home | vangeldermonk.com Reviews
https://vangeldermonk.com
We help organisations think more effectively about almost anything by bringing to bear our unique range of methods, tools and insights, and drawing on our extensive experience.
vangeldermonk.com
Process Review - van Gelder & Monk
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/process-review.html
Every organisation has processes through which judgements of various kinds are made. Sometimes these processes are severely deficient. More typically, there is scope for improved efficiency and quality. Drawing on our expertise in cognitive science, and our experience working with many different organisations, we are able to provide objective, insightful reviews of cognitive processes and propose enhancements. Just contact Tim van Gelder at. 61 3 9016 9089. A government security agency commissioned van G...
Our Team - van Gelder & Monk
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/our-team.html
Our team consists of three principals, working with a range of associates and partners. Please contact any of us for a conversation about how we might assist you. Dr Tim van Gelder. Dr Richard de Rozario. 61 (0) 438 131 266. Tim van Gelder MA PhD GAICD. One of the most imaginative thinkers of the modern age is Tim van Gelder.". Yeshiva University, New York. 61 (0) 433 128 818. Thunder from the Silent Zone: Rethinking China. The West in a Nutshell: Foundations, Fragilities, Futures. 61 (0) 413 020 781.
Collective Knowledge - van Gelder & Monk
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/collective-knowledge.html
Making organisational knowledge more useful requires special processes to identify, organise, synthesize, complete and share the knowledge. Classic IT-based "knowledge management" approaches are of limited help here. In fact, they are often part of the problem. In short, we can help your organisation "know what it knows" in complex, messy domains. Related: Argument Mapping as a Tool for Analysis of Complex Problems within Fleet Acquisition and Through-Life Support. An international defence contractor has...
Reasoning, Argument and Critical Thinking - van Gelder & Monk
http://www.vangeldermonk.com/reasoning-argument-and-critical-thinking.html
Reasoning, Argument and Critical Thinking. We provide a range of services assisting organisations to improve critical thinking skills of their members; these include training workshops, coaching, certification, and consulting. Leading experts on argument mapping and related techniques decision mapping, hypothesis mapping. Reasoning and Argument using Argument Mapping. Advanced Reasoning and Analysis Workshop. Analysis and Communication of Legal Reasoning. Our premium workshop in advanced analytic skills ...
Newsletter - van Gelder & Monk
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Back issues of our occasional newsletter:. Swarm Project, Essentials Workshops, and Changing Someone's Mind. Cosmological Credo, Risk Arguments, and Bullshit. Predicting Reserve Bank Decisions; Reflecting on Calamities. MI5 Moles, Superior Forecasting, and What the Experts Know. Tough Decisions: Sports, Investment and International Crises. Elite Decision Teams, Bayes for Everyone. Analytics, Major Bids, and Going Nuclear. Habits of Highly Critical Thinkers, JFK, and Superminds. Ph 61 3 8374 7646.
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Science | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/science
Archive for the ‘Science’ Category. An Open Meta-analysis Manifesto. Posted in Collective Wisdom. On May 16, 2016 Leave a Comment. Meta-analysis has become an indispensable part of modern science. By pooling data from many studies, and using special mathematical techniques, meta-analysis answers more questions, with more power and precision, than is possible either with single studies or informal reviews. What would truly open meta-analysis be like as a social practice? How well could it work? We are con...
Tim van Gelder | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/author/timvangelder
About: Tim van Gelder. Posts by Tim van Gelder:. September 1, 2016. August 19, 2016. Understanding what reasoning is. July 16, 2016. Argument mapping with Word SmartArt. July 15, 2016. Resolving the Shakespeare Authorship Conundrum. July 11, 2016. What’s missing from Klein’s advice for noticing what’s missing? May 16, 2016. An Open Meta-analysis Manifesto. May 13, 2016. Keep clicking, reach Philosophy. Older Posts ». For occasional emails about new posts or other news. See my publications database.
Bayesian | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/bayesian
Archive for the ‘Bayesian’ Category. On June 24, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”. See also rba.tips. Read Full Post ». Their dogmatic at...
Thinking in probabilities | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/2015/06/24/thinking-in-probabilities
Laquo; Benchmark thyself. Informing local decision making with argument mapping. June 24, 2015 by Tim van Gelder. From a good piece in the Motley Fool called Maybe Yes, Maybe No. Core idea is pretty much the same as in my newspaper piece Do you hold a Bayesian or a Boolean worldview? See also rba.tips. 8211; a site designed in part to help people better understand probabilistic thinking. On October 13, 2015 at 12:20 am. For the recent Edge.org summer short course …. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Notify me ...
Risk | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/risk
Archive for the ‘Risk’ Category. Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting. On March 31, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;I come not to praise forecasters but to bury them.” With these unsubtle words, Barry Ritholz opens an entertaining piece. Or the research by Philip Tetlock showing that geopolitical experts do scarcely better than random, and worse than the simplest statistical methods. More recent research on a range of fronts – notably, by the Good Judgement Project. There can be forecasting skill;. Forecasting i...
Prediction | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/prediction
Archive for the ‘Prediction’ Category. On June 24, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”. See also rba.tips. Read Full Post ». It shows Treasu...
Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/2015/03/31/seven-guidelines-for-better-forecasting
Laquo; The biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific. Brier score composition – A mini-tutorial. Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting. March 31, 2015 by Tim van Gelder. 8220;I come not to praise forecasters but to bury them.” With these unsubtle words, Barry Ritholz opens an entertaining piece. Or the research by Philip Tetlock showing that geopolitical experts do scarcely better than random, and worse than the simplest statistical methods. But also by less well-known groups such as Scicast.
Services | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/services
As a Principal with Austhink Consulting, I provide a range of services for organisations aiming to improve their critical thinking:. For decision making, wicked problem solving, strategic planning, rational consensus, and dispute resolution. In critical thinking skills, including reasoning and argument, decision making, and hypothesis testing. Cognitive process design and review. Analysis of complex argumentation. Risk analysis and communication. For more information see the Austhink Consulting.
Paul Monk | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/paul-monk
Archive for the ‘Paul Monk’ Category. The biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific. Posted in Paul Monk. On January 22, 2015 1 Comment. I forwarded to Paul Monk a link to this video:. He replied, within minutes:. It prompts the thought that the biggest revolutions in worldview have been scientific and have entailed:. 4 Slowly getting to understanding human history from a global and cosmopolitan perspective instead of from narrowly local ones; and. 5 Developing the elements of a universal cog...
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van Gelder Graphics
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Spring naar de inhoud. Spring naar het hoofdmenu. Welkom bij Van Gelder Agrarische Makelaardij, uw persoonlijke makelaar voor de agrarische sector. Wij zijn actief in de glastuinbouw, vollegrondsgroenteteelt, akkerbouw en veehouderij, maar ook voor landelijk wonen bent u bij ons aan het juiste adres. Wij zijn onafhankelijk en objectief, en geloven in een persoonlijke benadering. Het belang van de klant staat altijd voorop. Neemt u gerust contact met ons op voor een geheel vrijblijvend gesprek.
van Gelder & Monk - Home
Better knowledge, better decisions. We help organisations improve their thinking by bringing to bear our unique range of methods, tools and experience. Epistemology" is the study of knowledge. As applied epistemologists, we apply insights from disciplines such as cognitive science, philosophy and statistics to practical challenges within knowledge-based organisations. Subscribe to our newsletter. Are key decisions in your organisation made as well as they can be? Reasoning and Critical Thinking. In a ran...
Van Gelder Music | Musical Instrument Repairs, Lessons, Sales and Service
Musical Instrument Repairs, Lessons, Sales and Service. Tip of the Month. Now offering Saturday music lessons on Guitar, Ukulele, Bass and Mandolin. Call us today space is limited! February 23, 2015. One of our recent projects…. January 30, 2015. Please remember to “Shop Small” and support your local merchants! Thank you from your friends at Van Gelder Music Center! November 28, 2014. Custom neck shaping on a Fender Guitar…Just one of our many repair specialties. September 26, 2014. August 8, 2014. Fri: ...
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D'n Twist Blieft D'n Twist 2011. T St Tunnis Metworstpeerd. De Band Van De Maand. Van Gelder Music and Media. Meercameraregie in Westerbeek (8 mei jl). Voor filmpjes van het St Tunnis Metworst peerd. Bel snel voor een offerte: 06-20310129. Bedrijfsvideo, clipje, feest, een uitvoering of zomaar een leuke video: Bel Snel voor een offerte met Christan van Gelder. Ook via de. De laatst toegevoegde video's. Voor de laatst toegevoegde video's. Meer camera regie / Verhuur. Vraag naar de mogelijkheden. Voor Uw b...
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Servicios de catering empresariales, sociales y mega eventos. Organización integral de eventos. Planifiquemos y disfrutemos juntos su evento. Bienvenidos a Van Geldern Catering and Eventos. Somos empresa líder en el mercado desde hace 50 años. Con continuidad y excelencia en el servicio, acompañamos a nuestros clientes y buscamos complacerlos brindándoles exáctamente lo que necesitan. Satisfacción como garantía respetando la calidad y usando materias primas de primera línea. Una vez mas gracias! Y contar...
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Onbewerkte groenten en fruit. Aanmelden om te bestellen. Onbewerkte groenten en fruit. Bekijk ons complete assortiment zacht fruit. Vers van de bron! Fruit speciaal geselecteerd op herkomst, smaak. En beschikbaarheid. Maak kennis met BijtRijp! Een online overzicht van ons complete. Frisse combinaties van verveine en munt. Over het onstaan van het nieuwe logo. Morgen op het bord’. Onze visie op vers. 11:50 AM Aug 13th. Daphne en Harry van @HotelAbrona. 11:40 AM Aug 13th. Haagse rockband @Di rectMusic.
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